The biggest topic in the industry today is the potential fate of TikTok. While some reports predict an imminent “disappearance” of the app, this scenario seems overly dramatic and unlikely.

TikTok boasts a massive user base in the US, with roughly 170 million American users. The app’s ownership by a Chinese company has raised significant national security concerns for the US government.

The proposed ban wouldn’t immediately remove TikTok from existing users’ phones. However, new users wouldn’t be able to download it, and existing users would no longer receive updates. This would eventually render the app unusable unless the Supreme Court intervenes.

A TikTok ban would have substantial economic repercussions. Potential consequences include job losses for 3,000+ individuals, a negative impact on 5 million small businesses, and financial losses for 170 million creators. The US economy could also suffer a significant loss, estimated at $32 billion in value.

The potential ban has spurred the growth of alternative platforms like Red, Lemon8, Clapper, Flip, and Fanbase. This unexpected competition could significantly diminish Meta’s anticipated gains from a TikTok ban.

While the current situation presents challenges, I believe the complete disappearance of TikTok in the US is unlikely. I anticipate the rise of other platforms and the eventual return of some form of TikTok to the US market, potentially under different ownership or with significant modifications to address security concerns.

Disclaimer: This is an opinion piece and the situation is constantly evolving. This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice.